4Point AI
Market Opportunity · Page 01 / 02

Total Addressable Minerals Market · 2026

A $1B–$6B annual market.
A $30B+ embedded option.

4Point AI is building the intelligence layer for mineral discovery. The model combines recurring contract revenue today with asymmetric exposure to discoveries, mine-life extensions, royalties, and critical-minerals partnerships. Base-case planning estimate: $2B–$3B/year in contracts.

Three Value Pools

Pool 01

Annual Contract Revenue

$0.9B–$6.1B

Per year. Repeatable software, data, modeling, and technical contracts across all four commercial segments.

Pool 02

Royalty & Success Upside

$1B–$30B+

Portfolio option value. Discoveries, LOM extensions, success fees, and retained royalty exposure over time.

Pool 03

Strategic JV & Sovereign

$1B–$15B+

Long-duration strategic value. National mineral platforms, industrial offtake, and critical-minerals project participation.

Why This Market Exists, Now

Global Exploration $12.4B / yr Global nonferrous exploration budget, 2025 (S&P Global).
Capex Required $5.4T by 2035 Mining & metals investment needed to meet demand (EY).
Sovereign Signal $320M USGS Earth MRI commitment; $198M+ obligated through FY2024.

Annual Contract TAM by Sector · Low – High Range

Junior Exploration $0.25B – $0.62B Producing Mines $0.5B – $2.5B Governments $0.05B – $1.0B Strategic / JV $0.05B – $2.0B Total Annual TAM $0.9B – $6.1B $0 $1B $2B $3B $4B $5B $6B Base-case planning: $2B – $3B / yr
4point.ai Confidential · Directional Sizing
4Point AI
Market Opportunity · Page 02 / 02

Segment Detail

Each commercial segment has its own buying motion, contract range, and upside mechanism. Contract TAM and long-duration option TAM should be read separately: contract value is annualized, while royalty, success-fee, and JV value is a portfolio option realized over many years.

Segment
Annual Contract TAM
Royalty / Option TAM
Primary Value Lever
Junior Exploration
$250M – $620M
$50M – $1.5B
Better targeting, fewer wasted metres, discovery-narrative upside.
Producing Mines
$500M – $2.5B
$100M – $6B+
1–3 years of mine-life extension, reserve conversion, brownfield JV.
Governments & Surveys
$50M – $1B
$100M – $5B
National mineral intelligence, critical-minerals security, deal flow.
Strategic / Industrial / JV
$50M – $2B
$500M – $15B+
Supply-chain intelligence, carried interest, offtake-linked value.

Key Assumptions

  • Global nonferrous exploration budget ~$12.4B/year.
  • AI-driven targeting captures 2%–5% of exploration spend over time.
  • Operating-mine contracts: $250K–$1.5M per site per year.
  • Enterprise multi-site contracts: $1M–$10M per year.
  • Mine-life extension of 1–3 years where geology supports it.
  • Royalty / JV value treated as portfolio option, not ARR.

Sources

  • S&P Global Market Intelligence, World Exploration Trends 2026.
  • EY, Risks & Opportunities for Mining & Metals 2026.
  • USGS / DARPA Earth MRI & CriticalMAAS program updates.
  • Government of Canada Critical Minerals Geoscience & Data Initiative.
  • European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act strategic projects.
  • 4Point AI Flagship Technical Report, December 2025.